Why the Scottish Greens and SNP stand joint candidates in the 2014 European elections

It is not unknown for the Greens in Wales to have run candidates with Plaid Cymru at national elections, from 1992 to 2000 Ceredigion was represented by Cynog Dafis as a joint Plaid Cymru/Green Party candidate.  Given that there is the possibility of the Greens and PC standing joint candidates in the upcoming EU elections is it time the Scottish National Party and Scottish Greens consider doing the same? As far as I can see both sides would stand to gain in what is a very unusual moment in Scottish politics.

Below are the actual results and then what could have happened

European Election 2009: Scotland[3][4]
List		Candidates	Votes	%	±%
	SNP	Ian Hudghton, Alyn Smith Aileen McLeod, Drew Hendry, Duncan Ross, Gordon Archer	321,007 (160,503.5)	29.1	+9.4
	Labour	David Martin, Catherine Stihler Mary Lockhart, Paul McAleavely, Kirsty Connell, Nasim Khan[5]	229,853 (114,926.5)	20.8	-5.6
	Conservative	Struan Stevenson Belinda Don, Helen Gardiner, Donald G. MacDonald, Gerald Michaluk, PJ Lewis[6]	185,794	16.8	-0.9
	Liberal Democrat	George Lyon Euan Robson, Robert Aldridge, Patsy Kenton, Douglas Herbison, Clive Sneddon[7]	127,038	11.5	-1.6
	Scottish Green	Elaine Morrison, Chas Booth, Kirsten Robb, Alastair Whitelaw, Ruth Dawkins, Peter McColl	80,442	7.3	+0.5

Actual 2009 allocation       SNP - Ian Hudghton       Labour - David Martin       Conservative - Struan Stevenson       SNP  - Alyn Smith       Lib Dem - George Lyon       Labour   - Catherine Stihler.

If the Greens and SNP ran together       SNP - Ian Hudghton       Labour - David Martin       SNP  - Alyn Smith       Conservative - Struan Stevenson            SNP/Green - ???       Lib Dem - George Lyon

Together the Greens and SNP would have won 3 MEPs

One exceptional reason for an electoral pact would be the fact that the European elections will take place around three months before the independence referendum. Rather than fighting each other wouldn't it be best for the main parties that support independence to focus on the probably once in a lifetime opportunity that is the referendum? 

For the minority of Scottish Greens who do not support independence they would stand to gain as the winning of an MEP, even shared with the SNP, would be a big step for the party.


There are big differences on policy between the Greens and SNP, whether the new split likely to develop around membership of NATO or the news today that Scotland has missed it's climate targets. Nevertheless. the SNP has shown itself able to work with the Greens more broadly in Europe as a member of the Greens European Parliament group. Of all the levels of governance Europe is probably where there is least contention between the two. 

Furthermore, for the SNP it allows them to present the image of a united front and minimise partisan competition amongst the Yes side and gives them the opportunity to decisively win the European elections. This should not be underestimated in the crucial run up to the referendum as the media will be intensely focused on these elections as a barometer for the imminent referendum.

What about the SSP and Solidarity, well frankly they haven't had the support at recent EU elections to merit such a pact.Unlike the Greens there is no real possibility of either of these parties seriously fighting and hoping to win a seat.


An electoral pact would be fraught with problems, but it has been proven to work elsewhere and surely if both parties are serious about focusing on the referendum it is something that needs to be considered.

7,000 votes from oblivion:4,500 votes from 'success'? The Scottish Greens, 2011 Scottish Parliament elections and AMS.

Electable?

The 2011 Scottish Election produced and will be remember for the extraordinary majority gained by the SNP. The damp squib that was the Scottish Green Party's result was only remarkable for the fact they managed to stay exactly still on 2 MSPs in spite of expectations that the party would double or triple it's representation.

While some have discussed the possible failings of the campaign (http://brightgreenscotland.org/index.php/2011/07/scottish-greens-2011-election-review/) this is personally beyond my judgemennt. What I'm really interested in is the peculiarities of our electoral system that that while far more proportional than FPTP and what that means for small parties. Below is a simple graph showing how many votes each party achieves divided by their seats in Holyrood.

In 2007 the Greens scraped back into parliament with 2 MSPs (just). This time round things were a bit more secure. Patrick Harvie was elected with a margin of 2,100 votes and Alison Johnston with approximately 5,000 votes to spare. So that's ~7,100 votes from electoral oblivion.

So let's look the other way. Eleanor Scott lost out on a seat by 378 votes, while Mark Ruskell & Martin Ford were 2,000 votes off.  In the end the Greens were less than 4,500 votes off what many would have considered a 'respectable' showing. Was the result disappointing? Of course. A disaster? No. Proof that there is no future for the Greens in Scotland? No. 

Did the SNP break AMS?

Many Nats quite reasonably point out how some commentators are now considering the idea of electoral reform at Holyrood following the unprecedented SNP majority, is this really much different to the majority commanded by Labour and the Lib Dems in from 1999-2007?

	1999 (Lib/Lab)	2003 (Lib/Lab)	2011 (SNP)
Constituency	38.8 + 14.1 = 52.9%	34.6 + 15.3 = 49.9%	45.5%
List	33.3 + 12.4 = 45.7%	29.3 + 11.8 = 41.1%	44%
Combined	49.3%	45.5%	44.75%

 Looking at the majority Governments we've had previously we can see that they have all commanded less than 50% of the popular vote, although the SNP has a fractionally lower share than the 2003 Labour-Liberal Democrat coalition. 

For an essay I had to work out how proportional a result different electoral systems produce. I quickly added in a rough score for the 2011 Scottish Election and as we can see it would have appeared to have risen to a devolution high. (I used the simplest method, there are other variants to this.)

Deviation from Proportionality (DV)
2011	9.7
2007	6.35
2003	9.35
1999	5.5

In summary the SNP did not 'break' AMS they simply managed to get a higher percentage of the vote than any party before them. This thanks to the bias towards large parties, at the expense of the small, pushed them over half the available seats.

EDIT: This post was written last year and meant to be longer..